Oceňování 2019, 12(2):3-13 | DOI: 10.18267/j.ocenovani.228

The Methodology of the Prognosis of the Bank's Incomes on the Basis of the Regression Analysis for the Purposes of Valuation

Milan Hrdý, Anežka Skokanová

Doc. JUDr. Ing. Milan Hrdý, Ph.D. - docent na Katedře financí a oceňování podniku Fakulty financí a účetnictví VŠE Praha. Ing. et Ing. Anežka Skokanová - absolvent Vysoké školy ekonomické v Praze, zaměstnanec Deloitte Advisory s.r.o.

The aim of this paper is to analyze the accuracy of the prognosis of the bank's interest incomes and bank's incomes from fees and commissions on the basis of the different shapes of the regression's functions. This approach is used if there are not internal banking information and it is necessary to prepare the financial plan for the income valuation purposes. The data source is four diploma thesis concerning the problems of bank valuation of the students of the Faculty of Finance and Accounting of the University of Economics in Prague uder the guidance of the co-author of this paper. Two regression functions were preprared in each thesis, the first for the interest incomes and the second for the incomes from fees and commissions. The accuracy of the estimations was compared to the real data. It was found out that in case of interest incomes the multiple regression analysis is more suitable that the regression based only on the development of GDP, and in case of incomes from fees and commissions the multiple regression based on the development of the number of inhabitants and the exchange rate of CZK/EUR is the best.

Keywords: Valuation; Banks; Regression Analysis; Accuracy; Back Testing

Grants and funding:

Článek byl zpracován s využitím prostředků institucionální podpory na dlouhodobý koncepční rozvoj vědy a výzkumu na FFÚ VŠE IP 100040.

JEL classification: G20

Published: October 25, 2019  Show citation